Notes on Current and Possible Future Situations
I’m not an oracle, I don’t know things for sure, I’m probably wrong about a bunch of things. These are just thoughts going through the mind of a dude who thinks about things a lot and has a tendency to consider worst case scenarios as part of his nature. First part is probably good for anyone but if you’re already stressed out maybe give the second part a miss.
Immediate
Behaviour of people
As discussed in my emotional processing theory I believe people are averting their attention from the pain and fear of uncertainty by resorting to fantasy and seeking proof. Look for minor things to be upset about, people to be angry at, conspiracy theories, but the truth at the heart of it is fear, however they avoid dealing with the core emotion as per these theories.
Majority of people usually constrained by what is deemed socially acceptable – we are monkeys, social animals, to be rejected by the group meant death, so usually the strongest motivator in normal, peaceful conditions. Now other people have become a source of danger and the illusion of the societal group is broken, people are acting according to their own individualist primal monkey survival instincts. That monkey has a berry, if I have two berries, or better yet three, my chances of survival are better. Hence toilet paper.
So idea is to be ahead of the mob. I ignored this situation as I do most other news until toilet paper disappeared, at which point I began paying attention because the mob’s behaviour had now intruded into my world – reasonably rare or even unprecedented in my lifetime. So I felt some unease, took good action, bought a 2 week buffer of food before the mob switched from TP to food, out of my own survival instinct wanting access to staples if the TP panic moved to other items. At the same time I purchased a buffer of medications for the same reason, and they are now limited in how much you can buy. I didn’t hoard, but I took enough to give me time to wait for more should supply be interrupted when I want it.
As far as being ahead of the mob now, I can’t see too much else I need that they could take, beyond that I look at preparing for the economic repercussions, which people are rarely talking about in comparison to the virus, which is pointless to me.
Mob behaviour will probably last until social pressure is reinstated – fat arse Instagram hoes taking videos of themselves buying just enough food, everyone adapting to the new norm. I don’t think the British solidarity in the face of the Blitz etc was immediate from memory of what I’ve read. It took time to coalesce.
Personal Conduct
Trust instincts. If you have health issues do what feels right, listen to your fear. Reminds me of being young and getting in a car with a drunk driver because everyone else was. Don’t place societal norms and pressures above your instincts.
Be aware being confined and possibly sick, worried etc that you will be more easy to provoke. If you have an ex, are in a relationship, have people you shouldn’t upset be cognisant of this. Make a conscious effort now that you have more free time to dedicate some of it to meditation, Wim Hof method (increases white blood cells too), whatever you need to do to expel some of your pent up frustration. (My ex is frustrating me more than normal, she’s like a stubborn mule whose life is ruled by fear and inertia and anytime I want to make something happen with the kids I have to anticipate a multi-day process of taking shit from her as she processes the request. But who’s more retarded – the mule or the dude angry at it for being a mule?)
Limit inputs – don’t start day with worry and stressful inputs, don’t end day with it either. Limit social media and news consumption, be smart about when you consume it also. Only consume what you need to plan your strategy for the coming days. Lockdown information, economic mostly. Maybe health but not much is going to change there for a little while, and is largely irrelevant if you’re not in an at risk group and considering what will follow the storm of the virus.
If you’re dead you’re dead, and you can’t do much about that. What you can do is plan for the economic crisis to follow if you’re alive for it.
Financial Situation
Seen credible publications say this could be the beginning of a depression. Unprecedented – no one has seen the world basically press the hold button on the global economy. Caveat with this is I know very little about economics, I’m not predicting anything, I’m considering possibilities/worst case scenarios that seem possible/likely to me given consideration of the larger picture evolving here. Also I am by nature a worrier, which can be troublesome but also has its uses. I’m aware of that and it is why I chose not to consume news for the last two years, I’m not freaking out, but considering what could happen, and what I would need to do to make myself feel secure no matter what lies ahead.
Possible depression?
We all know the depression was a calamitous time in world history. I don’t know that it will happen, as I said I know I know little about economics but I have the sense that the true price was never really paid for the 2008 GFC by those who should have paid it, the lesson that needed to be learned, not. As far as I am aware most countries have not been flourishing, as evidenced by the fact that none of them had much room to influence things with lowered interest rates etc. Japan, the 3rd largest economy has been a cunt hair away from recession or in recession for the past twenty or thirty years. US in great debt, lots of QE having occurred in the recent past in many countries. It just doesn’t feel like a strong foundation to withstand a shock like this.
I’m now reading a book called Freedom from Fear – The American People in Depression and War to try to get a chronology of what happened after Black Thursday Oct 24 1929. Some parallels are quite interesting so far – prior to the great depression the US had experienced 3 decades of growth and prosperity, but all economies were still reeling/not fully recovered from the shock of WW1 11-15 years earlier. Stocks had risen to ridiculous levels, with people investing heavily in new radio technologies, seen as emblematic of America’s push into the future.
I’m not saying there definitely will be a depression, I’m just considering it. But it is also not impossible just because we have mobile phones and electric cars. In the lead up to the great depression the US had seen the advent of the mass-produced automobile, movies, radio, flight. It seemed like an incredible time to them too, the future more than likely a continuing upward trajectory. Here are some quotes from the time from President Herbert Hoover or referencing him. Keep in mind black Thursday occurred Oct 24 1929.
July 27, 1928
“The outlook of the world today is for the greatest era of commercial expansion in history. The rest of the world will become better customers.”
August 11, 1928
“Unemployment in the sense of distress is widely disappearing. . . . We in America today are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land.
November, 1929
“Any lack of confidence in the economic future or the basic strength of business in the United States is foolish.”
January 21, 1930
“Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed that the tide of employment had changed in the right direction.” – Washington dispatch
March 8, 1930
“President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days.”—Washington dispatch
Unemployment dropped to pre-crash levels in 1942, thirteen years later thanks to WW2 manufacturing.
Pivot.
Not knowing what the future looks like on a practical level I want to be as self-sufficient as I can be. I already have all the gear I would need to live in a park if I got kicked out of my place tonight. All I can think of at the moment that I would like is the ability to create my own electricity – portable solar, battery and a small laptop to charge off it along with phone etc. and I could be happy and functional pretty much anywhere. Worst case scenario it’ll be stuff I want when I go hunting again in the future.
I’ve ordered a few books, one is about surviving system collapse, just to see what the hardcore people have thought up, save me thinking every angle myself, anything I want to have prepared for just in case.
Financial. I have bought things already anticipating possible closure of non-essential stores. Other items I can wait on I can wait until people become financially stressed and start selling things off, I can get better prices then. Stores will also have big sales. Better to sell things now if I want to while the reality of even a recession hasn’t hit people. Studying this book to see how long things took and people reacted – already I’ve found out that some people don’t connect the crash to the depression – as you see in the quotes above people weren’t really seeing the forest for the trees until the bottom fell out properly. Still working through that.
For myself I’ve raised financial in my prioritised value system – this changes what I do, what I study etc. The self-improvement and introspection I’ve been doing are on hold until I feel I’ve got a hold on the current external situation. Guess I’m improved enough.
I’m studying personal finances and budgeting on Coursera now – a free course. I talked in episode 4 about my ‘3 of 3 degrees’ system where I would do work in Leadership (of myself, my life/for kids), creativity, and study most days. Practical leadership life actions have now taken precedence, along with study, creative not so much. Writing this now I would include as leadership as it allows me to solidify these concepts, which will allow me to get a clearer picture of my thoughts as time goes on.
I had the goal of living in a place with a pool, just as encouragement to aim for a more comfortable life in the future but now that’s not seeming so likely. In a worst case scenario a shed with dirt for vegetable gardens would be ideal. Not just out of fear or subsistence, but because there are huge opportunities in times of crisis and if that were the case I would want to save every penny I could to put into the business understanding that with time that frugality would pay bigger dividends. With my business, if I could keep my head above water while other went down I could start cleaning up and building up, buying cheap gear second hand, a better class of job applicants etc.
But that’s all pie in the sky stuff. At the moment I just consider what the worst could be, what I would do if that were the case, and I can scale back if it’s not as bad and take no action that would affect me negatively if things turned out to be not so bad. Just being cautious. Not betting the farm on anything, just being aware.
Then I go on to say how it’s awesome I’ve had a shit life because my high tide mark for suffering and lack of agency and feeling pain is so high I could be a great position to capitalise on whatever stress and challenges come at me given the new base I’ve created for myself in terms of how I live my life, deal with stressors and create and be productive. Finally this just copying a comment I wrote earlier:
I guess the takeaway point is I’ve had a pretty shitful life haha, most of it has been a crisis, so I’ve had to learn over the years to accept not having control over my life and float with the current, see where I wash up and then start working again. Struggling against the current, trying to hold onto the way you want things to be, just causes pain and saps energy and emotional reserves. Let go and back yourself to dig deep and kick arse when you wash up wherever you end up.
Run and Stumble 